NWS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

000
FXUS66 KSTO 042222
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
222 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. LITTLE
IF ANY FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE PLACES OCCURRING NEAR WATERWAYS AND IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE VALLEY.

FOR SUPERBOWL SUNDAY EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND A NUMBER OF FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS TO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE ALONG 30N
AND 155W THAT EXTENDS FURTHER TO THE WEST IS THE AREA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE TO BRING US CHANGES OF
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THERE IS A BREAK
THROUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL END UP BEING A BIG
EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING
WITH THE THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW HEADING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

AS THE TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORCAL. THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
INTERIOR NORCAL ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM
SINCE THE 06Z MODELS HAD VARIED SOLUTIONS, BUT THE 12Z RUNS SHOW
MORE CONSISTENCY.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR
CONDS IN THE SRN SAC AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VLYS BTWN 10-17Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES.  JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

NWS STO Office Area Forecast Discussion