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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Current Solar Data
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Real Time Images of the Sun
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SOHO EIT 304 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
Mauna Loa Solar Image |
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Click Here to go to the SOHO Home Page.Time-Lapse Image Of Our Sun
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
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Solar Cycle Progression Solar Cycle chart updated using the latest ISES predictions. |
Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum is expected to occur in May, 2013.
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Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. |
Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. |
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
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Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
Info for Radio Amateurs
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Now
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Real-Time Solar Wind
SolarCycle24
Space Weather Outlooks
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Space Weather Alerts and Warnings
Space Weather Alerts - Current Month
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
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Why We Monitor Space Weather
WASHINGTON — Space weather could pose serious problems here on Earth in the coming years, says the chief of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
A severe solar storm has the potential to take down telecommunications and power grids, and the country needs to work on being better prepared, said NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco here at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Lubchenco is also the U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere."This is not a matter of if, it's simply a matter of when and how big," Lubchenco said of the potential for a dangerous solar flare. "We have every reason to expect we're going to be seeing more space weather in the coming years, and it behooves us to be smart and be prepared."
Ramping upThe space weather threat is becoming more dire as our sun ramps up toward its period of solar maximum, predicted for around 2013. Activity on the sun fluctuates on a roughly 11-year cycle, and our star has been relatively dormant for a while.
That's clearly starting to change, though, as evidenced by a class X solar flare – the strongest kind – that erupted from the sun Feb. 14, 2011.
"I think the events of this week certainly underscore how important it is for us to be paying attention to space weather and to be prepared to respond to, and mitigate, potential impacts," Lubchenco said. "As we enter into a period of enhanced solar activity it seems pretty clear that we are going to be looking at the possibility of not only more solar events but also the possibility of some very strong events."
The Feb. 14 flare unleashed a wave of charged particles that streamed immediately toward Earth, as well as coronal mass ejections, or blobs of plasma, that took days to arrive here. When they did, they interacted with Earth's magnetic field to cause geomagnetic storms that wiped out radio communications in the Western Pacific Ocean and parts of Asia, and caused airlines to reroute some polar flights to avoid radio outages.
Next time could be worseHowever, experts say we got off fairly lucky with this recent solar storm, and that future eruptions could cause worse damage, particularly to the sensitive transformers and capacitors in power grids. If some of these were harmed, there could be power outages for days, weeks, months, or even, in the case of severe damage, years, experts warned.
"It turned out that we were quite well protected this time, so not much happened," said European Space Agency scientist Juha-Pekka Luntama. "In another case things might have been different."
Space weather hasn't posed quite such a threat before, because during the last solar maximum, around 10 years ago, the world wasn't as dependent on satellite telecommunications, cell phones and global positioning system (GPS) – all technologies that could be disrupted by solar flares.
"Many things we take for granted today are so much more prone to the effects of space weather than was the case during the last maximum," Lubchenco said. The problem is likely to get even worse as the world could likely become more technologically dependent by the time the next solar maximum rolls around, and the next.
Slightly scaryOther experts agree that the risk must be addressed.
"It is slightly scary, and I think properly so," said John Beddington, the U.K. government's chief scientific adviser. "We've got to be scared by these events otherwise we will not take them seriously."
He and other European officials said the world needs greater international cooperation to meet the threat of dangerous space weather.
"There are few emergency scenarios today that require such close cooperation across the Atlantic as a geomagnetic storm," said Helena Lindberg, director general for the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB).
We have an "urgent need to start sharing expertise and connecting our systems for warning and for response," Lindberg said. "This cooperation has to be put in place before a disaster hits."
Despite the risk, though, some experts stressed that there's reason to be optimistic. There is work being done to improve our ability to forecast solar storms in advance, equip more satellites with radiation shielding and fortify power grids with resilient transformers and capacitors.
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